From the daily archives:

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Slightly exaggerated , but a population crash nevertheless

February 2, 2010

The Guardian paints a bleak picture of a former Eastern German town, where the population crash has sank the place into a “demographic abyss”: with no children, tons of old people, abandoned buildings and packs of wolves. Wow, that sounds like the ideal setting for a Cormac McCarthy and P.D. James collaboration.

The more educated and mobile women moved out, and the men just kind of regressed, Russian-style.

Under communism, East German women worked more, and were often better educated, than the more conservative western hausfrau. But when their jobs disappeared in the early 90s, hundreds of thousands of them, encouraged by their mothers, took their school diplomas and CVs and headed west to cities such as Heidelberg. The boys, however, seeing their fathers out of work, often just gave up. In adulthood, they form a rump of ill-educated, alienated, often unemployable men, most of them unattractive mates – a further factor in the departure of young women.

Just like Japan, the problem becomes catastrophic in the second generation, when the pool of available women to have children dwindles, leading to even lower fertility. Especially if both genders are just as indifferent to the existence of children (social policies are moving in the right direction, but are they moving fast enough?).

“Today, 48% of German men under 40 agree that you can have a happy life without children. When their fathers were asked the same question at the same age, only 15% agreed,” says Europe’s top demographer.

The report gets spooked by its own doom at this point, and suggest we consider this as Europe’s future.

About a million homes have been abandoned, and the government is demolishing them as fast as it can. Left behind are “perforated cities”, with huge random chunks of wasteland. Europe hasn’t seen cityscapes like this since the bombing of the second world war.

What now?

After minaret bans, Swiss populists go after the Germans

February 2, 2010

in Machiavellian Machinations

What is going on in Switzerland to warrant this kind of populist posturing from its politicians?

SVP, the Swiss populist party that got the whole minaret ban passed with posters like these, have now turned to bashing Germans. The absurdity of it all is trumped by concerns that this kind of right-wing bashing may actually turn mainstream.

While the attacks on what it calls “German sleaze” in the Swiss ivory towers fits into the party’s populist rhetoric, the tendency towards German bashing — like the rejection of the minarets — looks like it may be going mainstream.

Let’s see if SVP will up the ante after the Zurich municipal election, whom is no doubt waiting to see whether this little maneuver will win them votes.

It looks to me as though Europe’s right-wing political parties are going from strength to strength, with the Austrian, Italian, Dutch and many others’ gaining traction and name-recognition on the global stage. Is the danger light on yet?

North Korea: To aid or not to aid

February 2, 2010

in Politics & the Economy

Not a dilemma for countries in the West, since most have imposed economic sanctions on North Korea, which means no trade, but also no humanitarian aid either.

However, this doesn’t quite work for those in the neighbourhood. For South Korea, China and Japan, North Korea is a reality that must be dealt with, in all its cultural-socio-geo-political complications.

This is an interesting point brought up by a blogger that I’ve not considered before: do you send aid to North Korea, or don’t you?

China and Japan may be weary of a nuclear North Korea. But more likely than not, those two are more concerned over the potential social upheaval, both politically and economically, as a result of a collapsed North Korea. The apocalyptic image of millions of starving North Koreans streaming over the Yalu River, or those seeking asylum at the Japanese embassy, must have caused somebody sleepless nights. Better keep the country afloat and somewhat alive, than having it going into coma indefinitely. So the decision to extend North Korea the much-needed lifeline makes sense.

For South Korea that longs for an end to this expensive and psychologically draining military stand-off, but unsure of when and how the Kim dynasty will fold and just exactly how re-unification will get paid, the decision to the above question can be a constant struggle.

That’s where this blogger’s analysis gets interesting.

No one can plausibly monitor nor distinguish military personnel from civilians, since all it takes is a change of uniforms and a plate off the truck. Therefore, if South Korea gives aid, then it will no doubt go to the military first. The aid will go to prolonging the militarization of North Korea. This is not good for South Korea nor for ordinary North Koreans.

If South Korea turns its back on aid, however, then it is knowingly starving a whole lot of people. Again, because that line between military and civilians is so thin, and because Kim Jung-Il has the power to raise army and militia from ordinary citizenry should he choose to, a soldier today can be a civilian tomorrow, and vice versa.

You can make the argument that blocking aid will cripple its army and accelerate Kim’s eventual fall from power, but on the other hand, if and when this whole madness is over, South Korea needs to deal with a nation of malnourished, developmentally stunted citizens. Not only will this impose a huge humanitarian cost for North Korea (imagine the finger pointing once the world sees pictures of skeletal children), it also has far-reaching social and economic costs for the government and people of South Korea.

Not an easy decision at all.

Not the best example for South Africa

February 2, 2010

in Get the Facts

The World Cup is coming to South Africa. A lot of beers will be drank, and a lot of illegal sex will be had.

This is a country where young girls and women (and no doubt boys and men as well) walk the street, a major sporting event the like of World Cup will add a not-so-welcomed boost to its sex industry.

Unlike the last World Cup held in Germany, where prostitution was legal, and thus controlled, South Africa is the wild wild west. And business is booming for human traffickers.

From a recent Time report:

While South Africa invests billions to prepare its infrastructure for the half-million visitors expected to attend, tens of thousands of children have become ensnared in sexual slavery, and those who profit from their abuse are also preparing for the tournament. … The children, sold for as little as $45, can earn more than $600 per night for their captors. “I’m really looking forward to doing more business during the World Cup,” said a trafficker.

And this kind of attitude from the president of the country does not help.

Jacob Zuma practices polygamy, and has now just admitted to fathering his 20th child – and not from one of his 3 wives either.

In a country where 20% of its population are HIV-positive, the campaign against unprotected sex with multiple partners is not just a matter of social and ethical etiquette, it’s pretty much a matter of national security. For someone in Zuma’s position to publicly flaunt the policy-line, and engage in behaviour that so many global agencies and NGOs are trying to dissuade the African citizenries from, it’s pretty despicable.