Japan has the worst outlook here because it has 1) low birthrates, 2) very limited immigration. For a country in this position to borrow so massively, as it has done during the last recession, and now again, is almost reckless. But they’re in a bind you see, because the whole modern Japanese social contract is based on lifetime employment and the social welfare that comes with it. Now those conglomerates can’t afford to hold up their side of the bargain, the government has to step in and provide. But they can’t afford to, thus they’re borrowing from tomorrow to fund today, till they figure something else out. So far, they haven’t. And that’s a big problem.

As for Europe (I’m talking about Continental Europe here for the most part), the problem is almost identical to Japan, but not exactly, because it’s a large continent of many countries. Traditionally, certain parts of Europe has had higher birth rates, than others. Although still not high enough overall (I don’t have immediate stats on hand, but should be pretty easy to find), an open-border Europe can still ensure that if the crunch come, labour will be relatively to come by. For example, people from eastern Europe and the Balkans can probably do what the Turkish and Moroccans have done for Europe last century. Of course, this is not really what Europe wants to do. Open border or not, many countries have trouble integrating outsiders, and there’s the bigger problem. Muslim immigration over the last fifty years has given Europe such a huge headache that they are extremely wary of mass immigration going forward. So that may mean a gradual dis-integration of its current generous welfare state. I already see this. Social benefits in certain areas in the Netherlands (particularly medical) are in many ways, inferior to what I’m used to in Canada.

As for the States, it’s in less of a problem as long as birth rates keep up and immigration doesn’t slow down too significantly. It’s got many problems itself no doubt, social welfare and medicare and all that, but demographically, it’s not as limited or challenged as those two parts of the world.

Japan has the worst outlook here because it has 1) low birthrates, 2) very limited immigration. For a country in this position to borrow so massively, as it has done during the last recession, and now again, is almost reckless. But they’re in a bind you see, because the whole modern Japanese social contract is based on lifetime employment and the social welfare that comes with it. Now those conglomerates can’t afford to hold up their side of the bargain, the government has to step in and provide. But they can’t afford to, thus they’re borrowing from tomorrow to fund today, till they figure something else out. So far, they haven’t. And that’s a big problem.

As for Europe (I’m talking about Continental Europe here for the most part), the problem is almost identical to Japan, but not exactly, because it’s a large continent of many countries. Traditionally, certain parts of Europe has had higher birth rates, than others. Although still not high enough overall (I don’t have immediate stats on hand, but should be pretty easy to find), an open-border Europe can still ensure that if the crunch come, labour will be relatively to come by. For example, people from eastern Europe and the Balkans can probably do what the Turkish and Moroccans have done for Europe last century. Of course, this is not really what Europe wants to do. Open border or not, many countries have trouble integrating outsiders, and there’s the bigger problem. Muslim immigration over the last fifty years has given Europe such a huge headache that they are extremely wary of mass immigration going forward. So that may mean a gradual dis-integration of its current generous welfare state. I already see this. Social benefits in certain areas in the Netherlands (particularly medical) are in many ways, inferior to what I’m used to in Canada.

As for the States, it’s in less of a problem as long as birth rates keep up and immigration doesn’t slow down too significantly. It’s got many problems itself no doubt, social welfare and medicare and all that, but demographically, it’s not as limited or challenged as those two parts of the world.

Thanks to you — I have become really interested in demographics.

Thanks to you — I have become really interested in demographics.