fertility rates

Many rich (and some not so rich) countries are watching the train wreck that is their demographic profile, heading for the cliff.  Japan is the obvious case, Germany and some southern European countries are doing almost as badly.  A number of surprise entries – South Korea, Russia, and even China, are facing rapid changes in their population make-up, thanks to rapid growth and a number of previously unforeseen second-order social changes.

There are two ways to slow down an ageing population.  The most obvious one – immigration, means you can cherry-pick the young and taxable coming in the door.  The other one is, to put it crudely, is breeding.  Now leaving the immigration option aside, to achieve a birthrate high enough to hit the replacement number is a huge challenge for a large number of countries.  It’s time to realize this: consistent low birthrate is the culmination of rational decisions made as a result of unresolved, and sub-optimal social, cultural and financial concerns.

1. Public and private policies must be geared to alleviate the burden of childbearing. For women, leaving well-paying jobs behind to rear children with little guarantee of career security once they are back in the workplace, makes those lost years so much more unpalatable.  Maternity leave options and firm-sponsored daycare options in a few countries are still too few and far in between, and those “benefits” are still the first to go in times of budget cuts and economic turmoil.  Additionally, the added burden of children, and the loss of one income during those cash-strapped years will make couples think twice before rearing a few in succession. Thus, both public and private sectors must work in parallel to alleviate and compensate women for this lingering wound.

2. Gender equality is essential. Why, you might ask?  Don’t conservative societies typically lead to more stereotypical gender roles, so either contented or suffering housewives will fulfill their duties in birthing babies? Not in economically developed societies with a chauvinistic bend.  Read more...